Seychelles, Crickets & Degens

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

May 09, 2021

Happy Sovereign Sunday! Short and (bitter) sweet version this week.

It was an interesting week to say the least. I had my head down work-wise so missed most of it, but here’s a few things I did catch that I'm having trouble reconciling.

Seychelles - the world’s most vaccinated island, had to shut down and go into lockdown mode because of widespread new Covid outbreaks. Try as hard as you'd like, this doesn't compute.

BloombergQuint @BloombergQuint

Having fully vaccinated more than 60% of its adult population with two doses of #coronavirus vaccines, Seychelles is again having to take measures which include bans on the intermingling of households and the early closure of bars, to curb rising cases.

bit.lyWorld’s Most-Vaccinated Nation Activates Curbs as Cases RiseThis vacation destination has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surged.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/world-s-most-vaccinated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

I’m also having trouble reconciling Doge with a market cap approaching $100B. A low utility, fork coin without a capped supply is more valuable than all the NBA franchises added together. That’s right, you can buy the Knicks, Bulls, Lakers and every other team, and still have enough cash left over to buy the NHL. The Degens have fully taken over markets. If you’re not familiar with the term Degens, here’s a good definition from Coingecko.

Shorthand for Degenerate. Degen trading or Degen mode is when a trader does trading without due diligence and research, aping into signals and FOMO into pumps. A Degen Trader does not know about metrics like FDV or TVL nor do they care. They will buy because the asset logo looks cute, or because the slogan is memeable, or because some twit-famous anime girl on the internet says she's looking into crypto and the first two shill comments gets more likes than others. Essentially, a degen trader buys into an asset not because they see value, rather they do so with the belief that others will join in after them and speculate on the price swings.

It’s the power of a degenerate, gambling network with serious $$ in the aggregate, and almost zero fear. That’s a recipe for insane volatility, risk and reward. If you’re a crypto fan or want to see how the counterculture is living, here’s an article from December to give more color on Degens and Defi.

https://decrypt.co/52739/decrypts-people-of-the-year-the-defi-degens

We’ll find out tomorrow morning if my Doge prediction is right that Elon’s appearance on SNL would be a buy the rumor sell the news event. Brilliant marketing by SNL however, as more people will watch the show to see if Elon pumps Doge than probably have watched SNL cumulatively in the last decade.

I never thought I would see the day when Bitcoin got memed as old and weak, but here we are….

What's next for the economy....and the entire zeitgeist? Don’t kid yourself. Nobody knows. Be wary of those who prognosticate with confidence. It's one giant experiment at this point. Will inflation blow out? Or just be “transitory” as the Fed crosses its fingers. The lack of workers and high demand should drive wages up, and the serious ongoing supply chain disruption should cause shortages and price ramps elsewhere. It’s under addressed, but the chip shortage at this point is a bonafide national security crisis. Chips make the world go round. There’s no ‘cricket’ for ‘meat’ substitute there.

balajis.com @balajis

Technology changes microeconomic leverage. Fiat → Fiat or crypto In-person → In-person or remote College → College or ISA TV → TV or streaming Each time a branch is introduced, many quietly take the new path. The mere existence of a choice catalyzes reform.

Balaji had an interesting tweet thread this week on choice, and the mere existence of choice altering the status quo by catalyzing reform. Covid may have been many things, a political dream come true for those seeking to expand government power, an accelerant of existing trends (distrust of institutions, crypto), a war by the laptop class on the middle and blue collar class just to name a few. But one thing it did accomplish that will be difficult to role back is the establishment of remote work as a viable path. That opening is upending cities across the US as people migrate from high tax, cold progressive cities to other areas with a higher caliber of lifestyle (and typically lower taxes). Here’s an article

https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-real-estate-investing-salt-lake-city-dallas-migration-during-pandemic-2021

It might be paywalled (and as much as I don’t like the liberal debutante Henry Blodget and Business Insider have become, they do have some good articles on Premium), but it’s no surprise that the cities leading the list are Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Sacramento, Salt Lake City and St. Louis.

Here’s the actual report from Coldwell Bank if interested.

A familiar mantra from based Twitter is, “I will not eat the bugs, I will not live in the pods.” Get used to hearing it and if it speaks to you, adopt it as a rallying cry. It’s clear what kind of life the WEF and Great Reset crowd are priming us for. This is the 3rd major insects for dinner article I saw this week. You have to condition the market before it’s ready. At least, that’s what our wise and benificent overlords are thinking.

Saw this posted today by my friend Paul Faust. As I turned 50 this year and saw the strife and pain in our current world, I tried to implement many of the below. It’s not always easy (especially on customer service) and there does need to be some boundaries, but the sagest advice you can receive is, “Don’t sweat the little things.” Perspective and gratitude is everything. That and a little bit of grace goes a long way.

′′ I asked one of my friends who has crossed the age of 60 and is moving towards 70, what kind of changes does he feel in himself?

This is what answered me

- After loving my parents, my brother, my partner, my child, my friends, now I started loving myself.

- I just realized that I'm not ′′ Atlas ". The world does not rest on my shoulder.

- I stopped bargaining with the neighborhood store owner. A few extra pennies aren't going to put a hole in my pocket, but it might help the man save his daughter's tuition.

- I pay my waitress a big tip. The extra money might put a smile on her face. She paid for a living much harder than me.

- I stopped telling the elderly that they have already told this story many times. The story makes them go down the memory lane and restore the past.

- I learned not to correct people even when I know they are wrong. The duty of making everyone perfect is not on me. Peace is more precious than perfection.

- I give compliments freely and generously. Compliments contribute to improving the mood not only for the receiver, but also for me. And a little tip for a compliment, never, never refuse, just say ′′ thank you ".

- I learned not to try to hide a mistake I made. My personality speaks louder than a small detail.

- I stay away from people who don't appreciate me. They may not know what I'm worth, but I do.

- I'm learning not to be embarrassed by my feelings. It's my feelings that make me a human.

- I learned that it's better to lower the ego than to break a relationship. My ego will keep me distant, whereas when I have relationships I will never be alone.

- I learned to live every day as if it was my last day. After all, this could indeed be the last.

- I do what makes me happy.

* I am responsible for my happiness, and I owe it to myself. Happiness is a choice. You can be happy anytime, just choose to be!*

Decided to send this to all my friends. Why should we wait for the age of 60 or 70 or 80? Why can't we practice this at every stage of life and at every age?

What I’m Reading…

**Why Power is Getting ‘Woke’. The point of politicizing everything is to make you forget what real politics is.

**A Manifesto for the Based by the prolific and fearless James Lindsay.

*It breaks my heart what they've done to New York. .

**Interesting. A blind 'taste test' of how readers rated various media sources without knowing their publisher. Rankings of NY Times, BBC, Epoch Times and more.

**The origins of Covid - from animals or from a lab?

**Inflation tax undermines the benefit of printing money. Why MMT makes no sense to anyone but academics and the ignorant.

**The Liberals Who Can’t Quit Lockdown. Maintaining Covid restrictions has become a personality statement for libs

**The honey bear - the latest victim of cultural crimes. Fnnch’s San Francisco art accused of cultural appropriation.

**This is a tough one. For most of my life, I was at best agnostic on the death penalty. Even before my experience in the criminal justice system, I became an opponent. The CJS is at best, imperfect (it's run by humans, who are imperfect beings) and at worst a corrupt cesspool mess. There is a finality and arrogance about the death penalty which doesn't fit in either of those categories. It's essentially saying men don't make mistakes and as we all know, mistakes get made by everyone. Thousands of people are mistakenly convicted each year and many are freed decades after their conviction by the Innocence Project and other accountability and justice groups. Putting someone to death is the only thing you can't correct. And believe me, spending the rest of your life in prison without the chance of parole, without the chance of ever tasting freedom or solitude again is a greater punishment than sticking in a needle in your arm. Man was not meant to live in a cage.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/ledell-lee-dna-testing-arkansas.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

The video below is a must watch. It’s a great and necessary look at connected, organic systems, and the damage we’ve done to ours. And remember, the same people who told you RoundUp was a miracle plant tonic and safe, are the people running your drug and vaccine trials. Much of it paid for and sponsored by industry, and the ‘regulators’ they’ve captured.