Fourth Quarter Kicks Off

Bearish on the Market, But Bullish on the Political Front

Sep 08, 2024

Quick update this week, as the tide has shifted just as I predicted several weeks ago. Back when Kama Chameleon was riding high on a wave of Soviet-level media propaganda and the Democrats were breathing a sigh of relief, thinking they wouldn’t have to run a literal cadaver for President, the landscape seemed different. But now, things are changing rapidly.

That little media astroturf honeymoon seems to have effectively ended as we slowly return from batshit fantasy world to just standard run of the mill ‘MSM are 97% Democrats’ jaded reality.

The Kamala interview I wrote about last week and every heavily scripted word out of her mouth seems to have reminded the country why she was the least popular vice-president in history and why the Biden campaign decided to hide her alongside Sleepy Joe in the Has Been Basement.

Don’t get me wrong, Sane America and Republicans are still in for the fight of their lives as I’ll detail a bit later but the short and dirty is the Regime will cheat like crazy this time around AGAIN. And they’ve got even more tools in their tool belt this time courtesy of the15 million illegals who are registering to vote at a furious pace across the country.

Assuming we even get to election day. There’s still 60 days left, and a lifetime can happen in 60 days.

The one thing to note is that as Trump’s lead gets bigger and bigger (and yes, he is leading - you can ignore the MSM propaganda polls and focus on sites like PolyMarket, Nate Silver and Rich Barris - pollsters that are less susceptible to Democratic leverage and putting their thumb on the scale), the Regime will get more and more desperate.

Consider this: if Trump regains control of the Executive Branch and effectively purges the traitors nest in the Department of Justice, FBI, and other agencies, there’s a good chance many of the Democratic Deep State Rats (and Republicans) face actual consequences for their seditious actions.

People whose neck is on the chopping block will do literally ANYTHING to avoid that scenario.

Faced with potential serious consequences, these drowning rats might resort to drastic measures to maintain their positions and influence.

The bottom line is most Democrats and Deep State denizens would rather rule over a burning carcass, rather than risk losing power in a restored Republic.

Keeping this perspective in mind can provide a clearer lens through which to view unfolding news and opinions—it explains much about the motivations driving current political dynamics.

Notwithstanding the above, Trump is in decent shape today all things considered.

Yes, the team made a strategic error by debating the Corrupt Corpse before his nomination was locked in, but they’ve recovered and been able to withstand the unprecedented wave of propaganda coronating Queen Kamala without a single vote or election.

By Nate Silver’s estimates, Trump looks pretty good right now.

PolyMarket also has Trump just above the margin of error after trailing by 10 points last month.

Apply some common sense: if Kamala were truly leading in the polls and swing states, why would she devote campaign efforts in deep blue Democratic territories like New Hampshire and Minnesota? This suggests her internal polling data might paint a very different picture of her electoral standing.

Despite Trump's current lead, significant challenges such as the upcoming debate still loom. The optics—a seasoned white male politician against a younger black female counterpart—might not inherently favor Trump.

Yet from a policy perspective, no serious person believes Kamala is more qualified or has better policies unless you’re one of the people the Simpson’s bus driver has to politely remind us about every now and then.

Most sane and serious people realize Kamala’s actions and stated policies - despite her notable flip-flops in an attempt to echo Trump—are historically ineffective and proven failures.

She’s been the architect of the Biden-Harris Open Border disaster, and has spoken repeatedly about decriminalizing illegal immigration. Meaning, no consequences for anyone that comes over and everyone is welcome - whether you were doing life in a Venezuelan jail for gangland murder or barbecued your fellow neighbors in Haiti because you didn’t like the color of their shirt.

Which is more or less the current administration policy.

Now, she sounds like Trump in 2016 talking about, ‘Build the wall!’

Here’s my friend Buck Sexton with a few other notable ones.

Ultimately, as previously mentioned, two months is a considerable period in the political landscape. As the possibility emerges that Trump’s lead may become 'too substantial to manipulate,' the incumbent powers may increasingly feel cornered. History has shown that when backed into a corner, desperate actors are likely to take drastic actions.

I wouldn’t put anything past these deep state demons. That includes setting off a tactical nuke in Ukraine and blaming Russia, a series of school shootings or domestic terror attacks, inviting China to invade Taiwan, or additional attempts on Trump’s life.

So stay frosty, keep pushing for friends to register to vote, and call your representative to demand election security by passing the SAVE Act.

If you enjoyed the ‘Very Fine People’, ‘Bloodbath’ or ‘Suckers and Losers’ Hoaxes, you’ll love the latest attempt from the Dems.

Fresh off the school shooting tragedy in Atlanta that killed 4, Democrats mobilized to blame Republicans, guns and of course Trump and JD Vance for the whole event.

Either way, the shooting news and political exploitation of it (a Democratic specialty in the vein of Rahm Emanuel’s edict, “Never let a crisis go to waste”) should have a very short half life and disappear from the news almost immediately now that we know this was the latest in a series of school shootings committed by a mentally ill trans person.

Perhaps the most amazing part of it all is we know more about this kid and his family in 2 days than we do about the guy who almost blew Trump's head off on live TV.

Regardless, after the Atlanta school shooting , Democratic politicians, insiders and press jumped on JD Vance and circulated thousands of articles, posts on social media and videos that claim he reacted to the shooting by saying, “That’s a fact of life” and some version of “Get over it.”

Of course, that's not what he actually said. Despite the Community Notes and subsequent retractions, Democrats and their supporters continued to flood the airwaves, perpetuating the narrative as if it were his actual statement.

Again, no matter how much you despise the media, it’s not enough.

The bigger picture is to ask the question why has nearly every major school shooting of the past 2 years has been done by a trans affected youth?

It’s also a good time to start asking why America has a violence and mental illness problem (not a gun problem)?

After all, the same number of guns existed in the 1960s and we had ZERO school shootings.

Other countries like Switzerland have extremely high per capita ownership of firearms as well, and have zero school shootings.

It’s clearly a mental illness and cultural issue, not a firearm ownership issue.

It’s not that I don’t care about school shootings. As the father of 3 school age children, it’s never far from my mind. But this is a good time to remind ourselves that there are perfectly good solutions to this problem that don’t involve disarming the population.

And that’s exactly why they’ll never get implemented with Democrats in charge - because one of the primary goals of this regime is to do exactly that.

This brings to mind one of the tragic downsides of our unnecessary and totally voluntary misadventure in Ukraine.

On the financial side, this is a hideous misallocation of resources. We’ve spent over $150B+ and counting on this voluntary, non-essential overseas adventure.

Has the Left considered for a second what could we do for $150B at home?

Here are a few examples.

In light of the massacre of innocent children & school staff in Atlanta this week and Nashville, Uvalde and others last year, for approximately, $10B, we could afford to place two armed ex-military special forces guards and fortify the structural security AT EVERY SINGLE SCHOOL in America.

Gun control idiots please don’t waste your breath or my time. The only people that benefit from Gun Free Zones and Gun Control laws are criminals. Regardless, the overwhelming majority of gun owners will NEVER give us their firearms, especially after the insane totalitarianism and evil we’ve seen in our country over the last few years.

The proper conclusion to draw is if they want to disarm you, it’s because they want to do something you’d shoot them for. So let’s focus on a solution that can actually work (and work immediately) versus the fantasy of confiscating everyone’s guns).

For $5-$15B, we could have built a wall and secured our border from the overwhelming numbers of illegal immigrants, Fentanyl and other bad actors making their way across every day in greater numbers than we’ve seen in history (I feel like someone ran for office on this in 2016 but was told $5B was way too expensive and a poor use of resources).

For $50B, we could afford to give every homeless person in America shelter (I don’t believe this would be a good, long term use of resources as the primary cause of most homelessness is addiction and mental illness, but it is a good example of what we could do for the money we’ve sent Ukraine).

For another $5B, we could round out and likely cover every kid in K-12 who come home without enough income to adequately provide and supplement or increase the SNAP, WIC and the national school lunch program. These are critical lifelines for families in need.

There are other federal and state programs that we know can make an enormous difference for hungry kids, such as the school breakfast program, the national summer meals program and the afterschool meals program.

Safe schools, a secure border, addressing the homeless issue, no child hungry….

These are just a few examples of what we could do to help our country and ordinary Americans instead of laundering money and fighting an unnecessary war in Ukraine. And the total price tag to accomplish all of these things is nearly $100B less than the amount of money we sent to Ukraine last year.

So for all the leftists lamenting gun violence (just school shootings, not the other 98% of gun violence), tell us again what your priorities are?

Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in AI

https://time.com/7014932/how-we-chose-time100-ai-2024/

Time Magazine's decision to exclude Elon Musk from their list of Top 100 influential people in AI is nothing short of absurd. This glaring omission exposes the MSM’s clear bias and detachment from reality in the tech world and beyond.

Musk, a visionary entrepreneur, has been at the forefront of AI development through multiple ventures. Tesla's autonomous driving technology is revolutionizing the automotive industry. His company xAI recently launched Grok, a formidable competitor to ChatGPT. Let's not forget Neuralink, which is pushing the boundaries of brain-computer interfaces.

Yet somehow, Time believes (**checks notes**) Scarlett Johansson is more influential in AI than Musk. While Johansson's advocacy against unauthorized AI use of her likeness is noteworthy, it pales in comparison to Musk's tangible contributions to the field.

This snub reeks of political motivations. Musk's outspoken nature and refusal to conform to mainstream narratives have likely ruffled feathers at Time. But true influence isn't measured by how well you play nice with the media elite.

As Musk himself wisely stated, "Magazines do not establish relevance, history does”. Time's credibility takes a hit with this decision, while Musk continues to shape the future of AI, list or no list.

On the bright side, this year’s list is only about 35% women, down from nearly 50% last year. As someone with many friends working in the AI field, I can tell you that even a 35% female representation ratio is laughable. A true representation would be closer to 95/5.

And I’m being generous…

No matter how much you hate the corporate media, it isn’t enough.

Goldman Sachs - Do the Opposite

I’ve seen this graph floating around the interwebs by center-left FinTwit accounts (you know, the fraction of Democrats that aren’t full blown commies or woke progressives).

In case you’re unfamiliar with the inner workings of finance or Wall Street, let me just say that this is possibly the biggest endorsement for Trump I’ve seen.

Unless this is your first day in markets, you know the smart money move is to fade Goldman’s public calls.

Their prop desk trades often money, and the whispers to their UHNW clients occasionally work out.

The public ones are utter garbage. And like Jim Cramer, you either fade them or do the inverse if you want to make money.

If Harris gets elected and somehow manages to get the House and Senate as well, there’s no need to think deeply about possible scenarios. You do one thing and one thing fast.

Sell it all. If any of her harebrained economic schemes go through like raising corporate taxes, doubling the capital gains tax or the catastrophically dumb (and unconstitutional) tax on unrealized losses, you don’t need to think twice.

Dump it all and don’t look back. You’ll see a generational down move in equity markets akin to the Great Financial Crisis followed by unlimited printing by the Fed to stave off a depression. Commodity prices and real assets will explode as the dollar is heavily depreciated eventually but first you’ll have a ski slope down in the stock market.

And that’s if the Republic survives. Odds are it won’t in its current form with 4 more years of this lunacy unchecked by a Republican House or Senate.

The good news is, this scenario is not highly likely at this stage.

But there’s still 60 days to go. As I said above, that’s a lifetime.

POSTNOTE: I’m taking a quick victory lap for the call I made last Friday to short the S&P 500 at 5640 in my Alpha360 Newsletter.

We’ve gone straight down nearly 5% in less than a week as the market started paying attention to some of my observations.

Here’s the short letter if you missed it.

Testosterone

Last week I theorized that Marc Zuckerberg’s dramatic transformation from statist propaganda and censorship kingpin to red pilled jiu-jitsu grappler may have been due at least partially to an increase in testosterone levels.

While I’m typically early (sometimes too early…), this week the TwitterSphere exploded with additional examples on the dramatic influence testosterone has on transforming soy boy beta males into red meat consuming conservatives.

Here are a few more interesting tidbits.

In a podcast that dropped this week, the members of NPR’s This American Life, one of the most pernicious leftist radio shows, got their testosterone levels tested.

All of the males had very low testosterone; with even the highest at 244 which is a level that doctors would recommend medication. And a trans guest talks about how taking testosterone made them suddenly interested in science.

As I noted last week, exogenous testosterone hormone therapy actually has the capacity to turn Democrats into Republicans. Whomever said medical science couldn’t cure the worst diseases known to man is eating crow this week.

So get tested, get help and hopefully with RFK Jr. in some type of cabinet or advisory role we can truly start Making American Healthy Again and put an end to the destructive scourge of leftism afflicting the country.

What I’m Watching and Reading…

Great clip on the Media vs. Reality relating to Donald Trump. How many TDS damaged people are there out there who actually believe most of the nonsense MSNBC and other channels spew about the President? Far too many. It’s the only reason the race between President Trump and the Invisible VP is close.

Take a look at this brilliant encapsulation.

The entire session is too long for most and they get lost in the weeds, but there are some great clips from the recent Modern Wisdom podcast with Eric Weinstein.

The first 4 minutes is one of them and features Eric discussing a notion that has caused me to lose a bit of sleep over the last 12 months.

I’ve spent the last few weeks blasting Tim Waltz, who I find one of the most repulsive people in public life. I still can’t believe how lucky Trump and conservatives were that the rampant anti-semitism that pervades every crevice of the Democratic party forced them to pass on Josh Shapiro.

While I’ve done a full accounting on Tim’s Stolen Valor and other attributes which should disqualify him from public office, one avenue I haven’t explored in depth is his bizarre infatuation with Communist China and the 30+ trips he made to the mainland in a short period of time.

Here’s my friend Yuri with a bullseye takedown of CCP Tim.