Dying Gaul
Daniel Penny, the Border Invasion & Trump buries CNN
Once more, we find ourselves in the midst of an accelerating narrative, a maelstrom of societal tremors too numerous to catalog. Nonetheless, we shall strive to keep you plugged in to the critical events, directing your attention to what truly matters only after you've attended to the essential pillars of life - your family, your faith, and your friendships.
Here’s All the News That’s Fit to Meme sovereigns.
Biden Crime Syndicate
Indeed, it’s becoming a smaller and sparser congregation of NPCs who refuse to paint President Biden in the harsh light of catastrophe and corruption.
Should the bulwark of the intelligence community and law enforcement not serve as his fortress, there is a high probability he would presently be facing an avalanche of charges, sufficient to paint a blush of embarrassment on the cheeks of Al Capone himself.
From the infamous "Laptop from Hell" to alleged election meddling by a crowd of 51 intelligence operatives, from the whispers of Burisma bribes to accusations of monetary gains from China, and every shady dealing that lies betwixt, the cloud of suspicion has deepened its hue.
In a recent coup de theatre, the House Oversight and Accountability Committee unveiled a scathing memo that intimates the Biden family and their co-conspirators in the establishment of over 20 companies, with foreign nationals allegedly endowing them with a sum exceeding $10 million for influence bartering during the era when President Joe Biden was a heartbeat away from the presidency under Barack Obama.
Here’s a link to the opener of the press conference.
Is there a bona fide commercial rationale for foreign dignitaries to shower monetary gifts on the younger Biden, a figure better known for his penchant for crack and “young” girls rather than his business acumen, whilst his father held the reins of the Vice-Presidential office? If we dismiss the notion of overt influence trading and corruption, is there an alternate interpretation that doesn't induce paroxysms of laughter upon its mere suggestion? The answer, it seems, is a resounding negative.
Exercise your imagination for a moment and reverse the roles. What would occur if the progeny of Trump were the ones to be enriched by Chinese, Ukrainian, and Romanian benefactors with millions of dollars during his tenure, whilst apparently offering no substantial services in return? The media and law enforcement would undoubtedly stone them with such fervor that it might resemble Infidel Halftime at an Afghan football match.
When the smoke clears and the dust settles, we're left with two stark paths. Either these Kleptocrats are put under the microscope, a no-holds-barred, honest-to-god investigation, and if found guilty, are held to the fire. Or, we strap in for a long, bumpy ride into a dark, uncertain future.
Border Chaos
In all candor, my thoughts are unneeded here. Any sentient individual who has paid attention to any non-regime sanctioned news knows that Biden's liberal border policy has been an unending fiasco since his ascendance to office.
It's an INVASION, plain and simple.
We must hark back to the era of Trump when he was relentlessly excoriated for his intent to erect ‘The Wall’ with the objective of stopping illegal immigration. Despite the concerted efforts of the Democrats and the regime-controlled media to obstruct this, we observed a record 45-year low in immigration.
Contrast this to the unchecked deluge of six million unauthorized immigrants in a scant two years under Biden's leadership.
The foundational bedrock of a nation-state since the dawn of civilization has been the control of its borders, language, and culture. You’d be hard-pressed to find another country in the contemporary world, let alone in the annals of history, that has consciously embarked on a path of self-destruction by allowing countless unchecked immigrants to cross their borders at will.
We are now facing an existential crisis of gargantuan proportions.
An unchecked influx of millions of unauthorized immigrants, which tragically includes sex-trafficked children and military-aged males of suspicious intent, is straining our border security and social services to breaking point.
During Trump's tenure, I held a more compassionate stance towards those already within our borders. The notion of tearing families asunder or deporting gainfully employed, law-abiding individuals striving to assimilate and contribute positively to society seemed fundamentally unjust.
Sadly, the dreams of these individuals have also been trampled under the current wave of entrants.
We have reached a juncture where the overwhelming sentiment in this country favors the deportation of any individual who entered illegally during Biden's term. No equivocation. No exceptions.
The deliberate strategy to undermine our nation is glaringly apparent to most of us. It bears the hallmarks of a Cloward-Piven strategy, designed to overwhelm governmental infrastructure, expand the Democratic voter base, exacerbate crime and disease, and precipitate societal collapse. This insidious agenda must cease immediately.
The Democrats' growing nervousness is visible as they attempt to deflect blame onto the Republicans. However, even with the regime-controlled media promoting this empty narrative, the American people see through the BS.
They understand that the ultimate responsibility for border security rests with the President.
The Republicans should seize this opportunity to instigate impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Chief Mayorkas. His performance has been abysmal and warrants severe repercussions.
Here’s a quick video of El Paso, Texas for those who doubt the severity of the situation (or still watch CNN and MSNBC and aren’t aware there’s a crisis altogether).
Letter from a Prosecutor
A 20 year prosecutor in Chicago just quit. His resignation letter sums up where we are perfectly as a nation when it comes to violence and exploding crime. This is a entirely an intentional, human created disaster. It's worth your time to read if you're confused (or have your head buried in the sand)":
"After 20 years, I always kind of figured an email like this would start with “It is with a heavy heart that I leave…” The truth is, I can’t get out of here fast enough.
Let me start with the positive. There is not a single day that has gone by that I have not felt truly honored to work with such an incredible group of people who spent every waking hour on behalf of victims. This opportunity has been a gift for which I have no words to explain the extent of my gratitude.
My partners, our Victim/Witness advocates, our Investigators, our support staff, the police officers and detectives, time after time I see each of you putting everything you have into helping people we encounter on the worst days of their lives. So often I see our personal lives, and indeed at times our own well-being, set aside just to do a little bit more on that last case for that last victim. It’s been nothing short of inspiring not as a lawyer, but as a person.
And yet, I’m leaving. Why could that be? The simple fact is that this State and County have set themselves on a course to disaster. And the worst part is that the agency for whom I work has backed literally every policy change that had the predicable, and predicted, outcome of more crime and more people getting hurt.
Bond reform designed to make sure no one stays in jail while their cases are pending with no safety net to handle more criminals on the streets, shorter parole periods, lower sentences for repeat offenders, the malicious and unnecessary prosecution of law enforcement officers, overuse of diversion programs, intentionally not pursuing prosecutions for crimes lawfully on the books after being passed by our legislature and signed by a governor, all of these so-called reforms have had a direct negative impact, with consequences that will last for a generation.
Many years ago my family found a nice quiet corner of the suburbs. Now my son, who is only 5, hears gunfire while playing at our neighborhood park, and a drug dealer is open-air selling behind my house (the second one in two years). If it were just me to consider, I’d stick it out. I’ve been through stupid State’s Attorney policies before. But this Office’s complete failure to even think for a moment before rushing into one popular political agenda after another has put my family directly in harm’s way.
The current people in charge of this state, including the [State’s Attorney’s Office] suffer from a fundamental misunderstanding…we live in a society with adversarial court and criminal justice processes. Defense attorneys, legal aid clinics, Public Defenders, defendant advocate groups…they fight like hell to protect the rights of criminal defendants. And they should. Their work is as noble as our’s. But we have an obligation to fight like hell on behalf of the People. It should go without saying that this must be done ethically and evenhandedly. When both sides vigorously defend their positions, a balance is reached between protecting rights while preserving some sort of order and safety. Once we start doing too much of the defense’s job, once we pull our punches, once we decide that it’s worth risking citizens’ lives to have a little social experiment, that balance is lost. The unavoidable consequences are what we are witnessing in real time, an increase in crime of all kinds, businesses and families pulling up stakes, and the bodies piling up; the whole time with a State’s Attorney who insists that there is nothing to see here, and if there is it must be someone else’s fault. And then they wonder why they cannot retain experienced prosecutors or even hire new ones…it’s because any true prosecutor recognizes the importance of this balance, and that they will not be permitted to be a prosecutor under this administration.
I will not raise my son here. I am fortunate enough to have the means to escape, so my entire family is leaving the State of Illinois. I grew up here, my family and friends are here, and yet my own employer has turned it into a place from which I am no longer proud to be, and in which my son is not safe.
To everyone in the trenches in the State’s Attorney’s Office and in law enforcement, my one regret is that I cannot be at your side anymore as you continue to fight the good fight. I do not envy the task you have before you, but you have my utmost respect for carrying on. I hope one day you are successful at returning some kind of common sense and security to our communities.
Thank you all so much for this opportunity to serve. I will treasure every moment of this chapter in my life. Be safe, be well, fight hard.
Jason F. Poje
Assistant State’s Attorney"
Trump Rape - Cheat Sheet for the Silliest Suit ever
The sheer absurdity surrounding the outcome of E. Jean Carroll's lawsuit against President Trump, a case anchored in events from the previous century (literally), serves as a sobering reminder of the potential pitfalls in a democratic system.
For those who've avoided immersing themselves in this case, give yourself a congratulatory pat on the back. Even prior to the verdict, it was abundantly clear that the result would do little, if anything, to shift public opinion about Trump or the legitimacy of the lawsuit. As one of the cardinal rules of sensemaking suggests, it's not worth engaging with matters that fail to influence our actions or life trajectories.
Considering the aftermath of the verdict and my bullet points below, I surmise the case and its outcome may actually boost Trump's standing by a few notches. The plaintiff's behavior has been nothing short of bizarre, and some Republicans and Independents weary of Trump's theatrics (myself included) may find themselves feeling unexpectedly sympathetic toward him in the wake of this farcical case (found not liable for rape, but liable for sexual battery). It's crucial to note this is a civil suit, not a criminal charge, thus removing the potential for incarceration.
Should this case have been filed outside the People’s Districts of New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or perhaps a few TDS hotspots like Seattle or Portland, it's highly likely it would have been dismissed with a mixture of incredulity and mirth, probably never even reaching a jury. A significant majority of judges in this nation would struggle to maintain their composure.
Here’s the quick bullet point list of problems with the case:
The statute of limitations for a criminal or civil suit had passed. Carroll and her attorney worked with the Democratic legislature to extend the time to file suit to encompass this case which took place approximately 25-30 years ago (there is no exact ‘date’ on the incident, LOL).
Carroll had numerous chances to bring her suit during the last 30 years including when Trump was running for President in 2016, during his “Grab em by the P*ssy brouhaha, during the 2020 Election or when other women came forward with similar stories and tales. But no, she only chose to bring this suit to correspond with the publication of her book that included the fanciful story.
Carroll’s suit and testimony was unspecific when it came to time and date. You would think someone who was raped would remember exactly when it happened. I guess that’s one of the issues with bringing a case 30 years after it happened.
Carroll claims the incident took place in a crowded Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room during midday with tons of people in the store and right next to a cashier. Had she yelled or protested in any way, she would have been heard easily.
Bergdorf Goodman also had video cameras of the dressing room entry. There is no video footage that exists of Trump, nor eyewitness to him being there (a celebrity at the time and one of the most recognizable people in NY).
Carroll seems like a loon to anyone who has watched her interviews or statements. On Anderson Cooper she offered, “most people think of rape as sexy…think of the fantasies.” She also stated multiple times what Trump did she didn’t refer to as rape (yet sued him for that specifically). Trump’s team should have played that interview at trial (although the Judge probably wouldn’t allow it).
Law & Order once featured an episode about a rape in Bergdorf Goodman that was basically line for line what Carroll describes as happening to her. We all are aware of the suggestibility of eyewitnesses and the false memory phenomenon.
Finally, let’s be frank. Trump is a celebrity who only dates and marries some of the most beautiful women on Earth. Carroll was approx. 60 years old at the time and wouldn't catch an average man’s eye much less Trump’s. It’s just not believable from start to finish.
Forget the above. Trump gives the best summary of the case himself. The audience’s laughter is a testament to the absurdity of the case. Click the video below for the Carroll portion.
Detractors might argue that a jury, composed of Trump's peers and fully aware of the aforementioned points, still found him liable. While this is indeed factual, one must bear in mind that Manhattan is a veritable epicenter of acute and fatal TDS infection.
It's highly improbable that a jury or judge in a more neutral setting would find Trump liable. This is even considering the more lenient standard in a civil case, which is a 'preponderance of the evidence' (meaning it is more likely than not, or over a 50% likelihood). The 'beyond a reasonable doubt' standard required in a criminal case wouldn't even warrant a serious consideration.
We've witnessed a slew of women either being exploited or leveraging their status to demand financial restitution or political concessions from male politicians, athletes, and entertainers in recent years. The spectrum ranges from the dubious claimants during the Kavanaugh hearings to figures like Anita Hill, Jackie Coakley, Tawana Brawley, Wanetta Gibson, and Columbia University's notorious 'Mattress Girl'.
Regrettably, plaintiffs of this ilk are accelerating the demise of the 'believe all women' era, and perhaps rightly so.
Trump on CNN
While Trump’s appearance on CNN no doubt garnered them more viewers than they’d seen in the past 3 years by a factor of 10, the elitists were already pearl clutching and hand wringing before it even ended.
Anderson Cooper commits Seppuku on National TV and says he understands if you, “Never watch CNN again.”
Crisis Actor AOC seethes and copes on MSNBC.
“Defender of the 1st Amendment” and fat, white, privileged Yeti Joy Behar shrieked at the horror.
Rick Wilson head of the NAMBLA TDS Chapter Lincoln Project melts down.
Their liberal tears brought joy to my heart.
What was so bad? Simple. CNN gave a platform and microphone to a man who blew their phony narratives out of the water. CNN and other regime propaganda networks have spent years promoting obvious falsehoods as unchallengeable shibboleths. Everything from the ‘safe and effective vaccine’ to January 6th being an ‘insurrection and worse than 9/11 and Pearl Harbor (also the first unarmed insurrection in history).
The hysteria from liberals and CNN is that Trump is now calling out mainstream lies that they thought were buried and done with. The only problem is as more info continues to pour in, more people are waking up and realizing that everything they hear from the media is a lie.
The real crime wasn’t showcasing Trump and allowing him to do his thing, it was exposing the heavily protected and uninformed ears of CNN’s viewers to pushback on narratives that the powers that be had decided long ago were established “truth” and not debatable.
Despite months of biased and incomplete Kangaroo hearings on the Jan 6th ‘insurrection’, more than 60% of Americans now believe the riot was instigated by undercover federal agents.
CNN and their views kept scratching their head after the townhall asking: “Why does Trump keep saying the 2020 election was rigged?”
Um, maybe it’s because more than 60% of Americans believe it was rigged, including nearly half of *Democrats*.
The fringe position now is thinking there wasn’t fraud.
As a recent Rasmussen poll shows, more than 62% of Americans now believe the outcome of the 2020 election was affected by cheating. If these same mainstream ‘journalists’ actually did their jobs and investigated the widespread evidence of fraud, that number would be even higher.
Lastly, and speaking of lists of questions, imagine if that were Biden on stage, answering questions about Tara Reade, the economy, the border and the Biden Crime Family. Just imagine.
Do you really think there would be any push back to his lies, assuming the impossible scenario that he was actually able to offer coherent answers? It’s hilarious even thinking about it.
For those that missed. Here’s the highlight reel.
Daniel Perry
Dear Women of NYC,
In the grand theater of urban life, your erstwhile protectors have exited stage left - those trusty blue-clad guardians, now hamstrung by defunding and henpicked Soros DAs who seem to have misplaced their prosecuting fervor.
Yet, in this drama, there lingered a flicker of hope - the unexpected hero, a good Samaritan, who might step up to thwart the villain's dastardly deeds. Alas, today even that faint light is dimmed.
The recent arrest of Daniel Penny is akin to a billboard in Times Square, broadcasting a chilling message: any noble soul daring to intervene in the city's escalating crime wave to protect the innocent from a violent felon, will now find themselves treated like one.
Simultaneously, this act seems to assure the city's wolves and lunatics that the DA’s office might just be their biggest fan. It's not a trailer for a new crime thriller; it's our current reality show.
Far from inciting fear, I merely present the stage as set. It may be time to consider exiting this urban hellscape, before you unwillingly find yourself in the spotlight as the next 'statistic' in the tragic narrative of bail reform.
The narrative is quite simple: Men like Daniel Penny stood between order and chaos for over a thousand years in the West. That’s why they want to destroy him. It’s pure evil.
It should come as no surprise. The shadow rulers of this country want the populace depressed and demoralized, living in fear. It’s why they’ve enabled crime to run rampant and punished those who would dare put on the armor and take up the sword against the degeneracy and destructiveness running amuck. As I’ve written before, it’s a page right out of the Bolshevik Playbook and Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals.
You won’t find more than a smidgen of air time for the black policewoman tragically murdered or any number of other African Americans cut down because they don’t fit the media’s narrative of racial division.
But a white man who dared to intervene (along with another Black and Hispanic man who must now be tried as accessories correct?) and prevent a madman set on fulfilling a deathwish? That cannot be permitted.
Remember, this was a heat of the moment struggle vs violent lunatic, who might have a blade or gun on his person, who likely would retaliate if possible, suggests erring on the side of ensuring incapacitation.
The craziest part of all of it is the selective outrage and media amplification.
If Daniel Penny had been black, it wouldn’t have mattered to the conservatives side at all. Not one bit. Nothing would be different in our support.
That being said, if Daniel Penny HAD been black, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation right now.
In my view, the grossest part of the whole tragedy is the people defending Jordan Neely and trying to rehabilitate his image after doing nothing for a decade to lift a finger to help him.
When it comes to the Left vs. Right choice of martyr, these two are not the same.
Your martyr tried to kidnap a 7 year old little girl and punched a 67 year old woman in the face.
Our martyr is a decorated Marine veteran.
We are not the same.
Neely received a 4 month sentence for kidnapping a 7 year old girl. If Daniel is convicted, his sentence should mirror the severity of Neely’s punishment for his 44 arrests (which means he was probably guilty of 3x the number of violent crimes since the city rarely arrests and prosecutes anyone these days with the right profile).
The reality is Daniel is facing 15 years for yeeting that POS. For those interested in actual law, 2nd degree manslaughter in NY can be found if the defendant recklessly causes the death of another person.
According to New York Penal Law § 15.05(3), acting "recklessly" as used in the manslaughter in the second degree statute is defined as being aware that your actions present a substantial risk that someone could be killed and disregarding that risk.
That’s a pretty vague standard and Daniel is facing a tough battle ahead.
NYC residents are sick of being attacked and menaced on trains and in public. I think an acquittal is likely if the trial is held anywhere but NYC (In Staten Island, it’s over in 15 minutes and the jurors go out to Liedy’s to celebrate the acquittal and buy Daniel a beer).
But they’re also cowards and may be afraid to acquit as the usual leftist agitators like BLM and Antifa will be threatening to ‘burn the city down’ unless there’s ‘justice’ (ie, a conviction of a white man who killed a black man they could give two shits about prior to this regardless of the evidence or justness). I’m sure prosecutors will sit on the case at the behest of their puppeteers in the Administration until next June so we can have a long hot summer of riots next summer pre-election if Perry is acquitted.
Here’s the link below to Daniel Penny’s GiveSendGo Crowdfunding Page. I suggest you contribute if you find it a worthwhile cause.
https://www.givesendgo.com/daniel_penny
And for my female friends, here’s a word of advice.
And for those looking to exit in light of the Daniel Penny case and swift collapse of once the world’s greatest city into a dystopian nightmare, here’s a link to my friend Yuri Bezmenov’s excellent article on Escaping New York.
Remember, as a society we deserve what we tolerate.
Spare Some Ammo Ma’am?
This week a Michigan Tactical Officers Association reached out to a local ammunition manufacturer to ask for some ‘free ammo’ for their training.
The owner’s response was one of the best things I’ve seen lately.
If only more Americans felt this way and had the courage to voice it.
And when asked by media whether the owner in fact sent that letter, his response was gold.
“Yes of course I sent it, I'm done with this nonsense.
Why does law enforcement need donations?
Our tax dollars aren't enough?
You guys can't buy your own fucking shit so you hit up small businesses to fund your wild weekend getaway?
Get the fuck out of here.”
Well said Sir, well said. #Legend
Safety - Verification Words
My family and I have a verification word. If you ever call or video us and ask for something out of the ordinary, we'll ask for the word. It's like a one-time password that's impossible to crack.
We came up with this idea because deepfakes are becoming more and more realistic. It's easy to imagine a future where scammers use deepfakes to trick people into giving up their money or personal information.
Our verification word is a simple way to protect ourselves from these scams. It's easy to remember and it's impossible for scammers to guess.
I encourage everyone to come up with a verification word for their family or team. It's a simple way to protect yourself from the growing threat of deepfakes.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/29/us/ai-scam-calls-kidnapping-cec/index.html
When it comes to banks, brokers or other phishing scams, one should never give up critical information on the phone without a second level of verification. Ask them to email you, check the URL and/or even better, hang up and say you're going to confirm with your authorized representative or local branch. Call the official number on the website or visit your bank and inquire to confirm the call is legitimate.
50/50 Coin Flip AI Wipes out Humanity
Hey, it’s still better odds than Roulette…
As those familiar with Sovereign Sunday are well aware, I’ve been writing for the past year on the opportunities and significant dangers around AI progression and the lack of alignment with humanity.
Goldman Sachs and BCA Research recently published notes talking about this subject. While Goldman’s was notable for the advances it foresees AI enabling, BCA was a bit darker putting a 50/50 handicap on AI wiping out humanity.
This is a different seed than anything we’ve witnessed. For the previous 100 years, I’d say the average chance of an ELE is much less than 1%. The Biden' Administration’s catastrophic foreign policy failures first in Afghanistan and now Ukraine have raised that % to closer to 2-4% I’d wager, outrageously high and scary for a war with no upside that we helped create.
The ugly reality is AI is on a scale that far exceeds the nuclear conflict worries. Is it 50? Hard to say. It could be 20, it could be 80. Either way, the risk is too high and yet there is very little we can do about it. (last letter).
Here are the highlights of the Goldman and BCA letter courtesy of Zero Hedge.
Their shocking conclusion: AI will lead one-third of a billion layoffs (at least) in the US and Europe. Think of it as the robotization of the service sector.
Specifically, according to Jan Hatzius, "using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation" as up to "two thirds of occupations could be partially automated by AI."
And while Goldman does everything it can to spin the data in a positive light, with the mass layoffs being offset by "a boom in labor productivity that significantly increases global output", with widespread AI adoption eventually driving a 7% or almost $7tn increase in annual global GDP over a 10-year period.
However, as great as $7 trillion sounds... we would have to survive it to enjoy it (and by 'we', we mean 'all of humanity') and that's where BCA Research's latest report takes up the story: ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law.
Here's the punchline:
The safety risks around AI are huge, and we think there is a more than 50/50 chance AI will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century.
So how does BCA Research's team get there?
Most discussions of AI extrapolate linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. But AI’s progression is following an exponential curve, not a linear one, meaning that advances could come much faster than expected
AI Is Different
If AI follows the same trajectory as other major technological revolutions, we may not see major economy-wide productivity gains from AI until the 2030s or later.
That being said, there are reasons to think that AI's impact could come much sooner. A recent study by Erik Brynjolfsson and his co-authors revealed that productivity rose by 14% among customer service workers at a major software firm after they were given access to generative artificial intelligence tools.
The thing about those earlier technological revolutions is that they were focused on the application and dissemination of pre-existing knowledge. In contrast, the AI revolution has the potential to lead to the creation of new knowledge – knowledge generated by machines rather than humans.
To be sure, this has not happened yet. ChatGPT still functions as a glorified autocomplete feature, using its algorithm to add word after word, sentence after sentence, to a running dialogue from a massive library of text. Yet, even with this limited functionality, it has managed to show what a recent Microsoft research paper described as “sparks” of general artificial intelligence.
While the investment frenzy over AI has already begun, the economic impact of AI is not yet visible in the productivity data...
The Last Thing Humans Ever Invent
The fact that AI minds are nothing like human minds is irrelevant. A plane is nothing like a bird. Yet, the former can still fly much faster than the latter.
If models such as ChatGPT ever reach the point where they can train themselves – much like Deepmind’s AlphaZero can train itself to master chess without ever being taught the rules of the game – then they will be able to recursively improve themselves at an astronomically fast rate. To some extent, this is already happening.
Imagine an intelligence that can evolve from an initial IQ of 1. It would take five doublings to reach an IQ of 32, which is still far too low to function in a modern technological world. But it would only take three more doublings to reach an IQ of 256, which is far above the IQ of any human who has ever lived. AI has been improving exponentially for many years, but it is only now that we have reached the point along the curve where it can surpass humans on a wide variety of cognitive tasks.
This highlights a key shortcoming of most discussions of AI’s probable impact on society and the economy. They extrapolate linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. But AI’s progression is following an exponential curve, not a linear one, meaning that advances could come much faster than expected. In fact, AI’s progression will probably be hyperexponential, with the time between performance doublings shrinking from years to perhaps weeks or even hours. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential increase in cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms the world around us.
A Phase Transition
It does not matter if you can run the 100-meter dash in 11 or 12 seconds. However, it does matter if you can run it in 9 seconds or 10 seconds, because the difference between the two times will determine if you get an Olympic gold medal or a participation ribbon. By the same token, water is just water if its temperature is 80 or 90 degrees Celsius. But when the temperature hits 100 degrees, a “phase transition” occurs: it becomes steam. Humanity may be on the brink of such a phase transition.
The human population barely grew until the advent of farming around 10,000 BC. Following the Agricultural Revolution, global population growth accelerated to about 2.5% per century. With the start of the Industrial Revolution, global population growth jumped 40-fold to 1% per year. As humanity finally exited the Malthusian trap, per capita income began to rise much more quickly than the population. Since 1800, global GDP has risen by 2.8% per year for a cumulative increase of 50,000% (Chart 8).
If humanity survives the transition to superintelligent AI, the impact on growth could be comparable to what occurred first during the Agricultural Revolution, and later during the Industrial Revolution. Both revolutions experienced a 30-to-100-fold increase in GDP growth relative to the previous epoch.
New technologies and new industries will proliferate. Problems that once seemed intractable, such as how to stop and reverse aging, could be solved overnight. Before ChatGPT, it seemed unlikely that such a phase transition would begin anytime soon. Now, it is probable it will happen by the end of the decade.
BCA's Bottom Line: Unlike past technological revolutions, the impact of superintelligent AI could arrive quite quickly. It will usher in an era of unprecedented prosperity or turn us all into paper clips.
And that is where BCA's research takes a darker turn...
Open the Pod Bay Doors, Hal
Will we survive the transition to superintelligence? Unfortunately, the odds are not good. The main issue is centered on the so-called alignment problem – how to align our goals with the AI’s goals.
Every AI system needs to be given a goal to pursue, without which it would not know how to use its resources. In the case of ChatGPT, that goal is entered as a prompt by the user. With more elaborate AIs such as AutoGPT, the goals could be more open-ended.
The list of all conceivable goals that an AI can pursue is enormous, only a tiny subset of which most humans would ever want to see fulfilled. And even within that tiny subset, getting an AI to fulfill a goal in the way it was originally intended could prove to be exceedingly difficult.
The Curse of the Second Law
The laws of physics do not have a preferred direction of time. The reason we perceive the flow of time is because of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which states that entropy almost always increases in the direction we call the future.
A system with high entropy has more possible arrangements than a system with low entropy. If you see a photo of a broken egg and a photo of the same unbroken egg, you can tell which photo was taken first because there are many more ways an egg can be broken than unbroken.
One of the consequences of the Second Law is that it is much easier to destroy than to create. Such destruction can come inadvertently, as in the example of the paper clip maximizer, or it might come intentionally. Either way, it might be difficult to avoid annihilation.
AI Safety Will Be a Huge Industry
By one estimate, humanity has wiped out 60% of vertebrate animals since 1970. We never purposely set out to kill them. It was just a by-product of economic expansion across the planet. The risk is that contact with a more intelligent AI could also usher in our extinction.
On March 22, the Future of Life Institute published a letter signed by more than 1,000 luminaries, including Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, arguing for a six-month pause in AI research to allow for more time to develop better safety protocols.
So far, the AI industry has been extremely cavalier about safety issues. That will likely change, as concern over the risks posed by AI continues to accumulate.
So, in summary, AI will lead to 300 million in job losses according to Goldman... and then it will wipe out all of humanity.
Maybe Musk is on to something with the 'pause'.
Lightning Round
Pepe Coin
To be frank, I hate this shit. Meme coins, JPEGs, Ordinals.,.....it's all total, worthless BS. But I also believe in free markets and if people want to use a protocol that's all good. Ordinals will eventually die as people realize spending $10 for something worth $0.04 is not a good deal but that can take a long time and cause plenty of havoc in the meantime. Just look at the Jpegs/NFTS from the first mania. Most of them are down 90% plus but the Bored Apes and Crypto Punks still sell for $1M or more each. Eventually, they'll probably be worth a fraction of that but at least there is some scarcity and collector value to this early....and it's certainly more aesthetic and interesting then plenty of modern art that sells for similiarly exaggerated price tag - anyone remeber PissChrist or Wall Banana?
List of Colleges that Never Mandated the Vax
While Northeastern and blue city elites may not find the college they hope their child attends on this list, these schools deserve major kudos for seeing through the narrative and never succumbing to the bullshit. Every day, another institution of ‘higher learning’ admits it made a monstrous mistake and drops the vax requirement. Hopefully by next year, all of them will come back to some semblance of normal. Regardless, every single college that mandated the vax and caused the injury of students that had no need for a an experimental, untested vax against a virus that didn’t affect them in the least deserves to be sued for billions and taught the harshest of lessons.
If Jean Carroll can get $5M for her rape fantasy from 3 decades ago, surely injured or murdered students should receive $100M a piece for this scientific barbarism.
Here’s the full list of colleges that never mandated the Vax.
A Quick Question & Comprehensive Answer on Debt Default
Here’s a poignant (yet somewhat irrelevant) answer from former investment banker Mrs. S on whether we should default on our debt.
Should we default on our debt?
Well, we have defaulted on our border security.
We have defaulted on our energy independence.
We have defaulted on supporting our Constitution.
We have defaulted on following the sciences.
We have defaulted on using the rule of law.
We have defaulted on the concept of innocent until proven guilty.
We have defaulted on protecting innocent babies.
We have defaulted on protecting women in sports.
We have defaulted on protecting women bathrooms.
We have defaulted on protecting the number of sexes.
We have defaulted on using proper pronouns.
We have defaulted on upholding the politician oath of office.
We have defaulted on preventing leaks from the Supreme Court.
We have defaulted in keeping violent criminals in prison.
We have defaulted on keeping the mentally ill off the streets.
We have defaulted on having a non-biased media.
We have defaulted on keeping our cities clean and safe.
We have defaulted on preventing fentanyl from reaching our children.
We have defaulted on keeping our banks solvent.
We have defaulted on keeping our mortgage rates low for homeowners.
We have defaulted on keeping the cost of living affordable.
We have defaulted on having a color-blind society.
We have defaulted on the concept of equality.
We have defaulted on protecting individual freedom of religion.
We have defaulted on protecting financial freedom.
We have defaulted on protecting our privacy.
We have defaulted on protecting the nuclear family.
We have defaulted on protecting our factual history.
We have defaulted on protecting our military.
We have defaulted on protecting our National Anthem.
We have defaulted on protecting our flag.
We have defaulted on protecting our airspace.
We have defaulted on letting one use self-defense.
We have defaulted on supporting our police.
We have defaulted on supporting our election laws.
We have defaulted on Capitalism.
We have defaulted on the future use of gas stoves.
We have defaulted on supporting excellent educational achievement.
We have defaulted from protecting local stores from being looted.
We have defaulted from keeping the cost of living down.
We have defaulted on the middle class.
We have defaulted on the poor.
We have defaulted on our drug addicts.
We have defaulted on finding out what caused Covid.
So, why not default on our Debt?????
The accelerationist in me doesn’t really care if we do or don’t. The realist would prefer they raise the debt limit since there is no way anyway to actually pay off our debts and I wouldn’t mind the extra 6-18 months to keep preparing and stacking cash/sats.
From an investment point of view, the debt crisis comes at a very unique time. The consensus is we’ve never defaulted in the past, it’s all theater and we won’t default this time. Zero percent chance. That’s a bit of normalcy bias. The chance is probably higher than zero (although not very high). Political polarization is at an all time high, there’s no political leadership in the White House with a functioning pulse, and most Americans (at least taxpayers) are fundamentally disgusted by the fiscal and monetary policies that led to runaway deficits and runaway inflation.
The actions of the political and financial leadership created a bank crisis brought on by poor risk management and poor monetary decisions by the Fed. With money markets and treasuries yielding 4-5%, we’ve seen a huge outflow of funds from the banks. That’s only logical. Banks pay 0.1% on interest (great business model huh? Borrow from you at 0.1% and loan back to you at 7% for a mortgage).
Why keep your money in a savings account when a money market pays 50 times that amount in interest? But here’s the catch. If we were to default, the money markets and treasuries could take a big hit. You might be safer at the 0.1% for the time being (as long as it’s under the $250K FDIC cap or if you have insurance for overages.
Here’s my plan: Personally, I’ve decided to withdraw my funds from money market accounts for the time being due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling issue. This means I'm foregoing some potential interest earnings, but the trade-off is that I'm less worried about potential risks like the negative impact on Treasuries if the whole thing goes pear-shaped. Once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, I will consider dipping my toes back in some safe waters.
On that note, if you’re interested in joining us this week at Alpha360, please register at the link below. There’s no charge and it’ll give you a good feel for what we do each week as we strive to upgrade your markets, money and life.
Thing I’m Reading and Watching….
Remarkable clip from OpenAI (ChatGPT) Founder Sam Altman on the state of US crypto. Imagine one of the 5 most important people/innovators in technology openly proclaiming that the US has de facto banned crypto and become a graveyard of innovation for this technology. Remarkable indeed.
Watch the first 2 minutes for the crypto part. The rest of the video is worth a watch as well. As I’ve said repeatedly for the past year, we are not remotely ready as a society for the disruption currently taking place.
Priceless clip of Chicago south side residents protesting about migrants being shipped to their community.
Elections have consequences. Stop voting for the same lunatics who are destroying America and using you as bait.
As an ancient philosopher once said, “The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed.”
On a more conciliatory front, congrats South Side residents on taking your first step to joining the America First movement. You’ll find it’s a big tent of all races, religions and genders with one unifying principle - the days of selling out Americans to line the pockets of politicians and give free goodies to foreign countries and illegal immigrants while putting Veterans and other American citizens at the back of the line to pick up the leftover scraps is done.
After 70+ years of blind allegiance to the Democrat party, it’s time for Black America to finally ask themselves the following and answer honestly:
Fed’s Waller affirming what any rational, seriously person already knows about Climate Change.
It's a complete non issue. Whether you agree with me that it's a total hoax and falls apart the second you start seriously looking into it, or you think it’s an issue that needs some attention but something short of the $100 Trillion + needed to accomplish a meaningless, unreachable goal, the simple fact is no one in the financial world thinks it’s a Top 10 issue. If they did, banks wouldn’t be giving out 30 year mortgages on oceanfront properties in Miami and Obama and other Kleptocrats wouldn’t be buying beachfront Martha’s Vineyard mega mansions. The key here, and nearly everywhere else in life is to watch what they do, not what they say.
DeepMind Co-Founder says government will have to consider UBI for people who lose their jobs to AI.
A recent metformin study casts doubts on longevity indications. From Peter Attia.
DeepMind cofounder warns governments seriously need to find solutions for people who lose their jobs to AI (cough cough, UBI).
Here’s a terrific interview with Stanley Druckenmiller at the Sohn Conference. Stan is one of the all-time greats, and we align and most things regarding investment outlook and how we got here.
A Taste of Tweeter
The Taliban absolutely roasting Hillary Clinton made my day. What a world we live in…
Memetic Warfare
Parting Words
That’s it for this week folks. Hope you enjoyed and share it with a friend!
If you’re interested in joining us this week at Alpha360, please register at the link below. There’s no charge and it’ll give you a good feel for what we do each week as we upgrade your markets, money and life.
https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZYpd-2tpz8sGtVNYQTTRUNpQ8XYp4svsgRa#/registration
Biden sent troops to the border. Shouldn't you be celebrating that? Instead, no mention of it whatsoever?
Election still rigged? Why no mention of Fox News paying almost a BILLION dollars to settle their lies & defamation case with Dominion? Do innocent parties settle for almost a BILLION dollars?
Also, why was my account banned for 30 days? What about all the free speech freedom rhetoric?